Governments love inflation. It is a hidden tax on everyone and a transfer of wealth from bank deposits and real wages to indebted governments that collect more receipts via higher indirect taxes and devalue their debts. That is why we cannot expect governments to take decisive action on inflation. To…

The most common question among investors these days is when to buy the dip. Very few market participants seem to be worried about a crisis or deep recession, let alone a nuclear threat. However, those three scenarios are not unimaginable. In its Global Data Watch of June 17, JP Morgan…

For years we have read that it was important for the Federal Reserve and the major central banks to push the limits of monetary policy to boost growth and jobs. Monetary policy stood at the forefront of all recovery plans. …

Many have read that there is a food crisis looming and there are significant concerns about grain shortages. The main reason for this possible crisis is the Ukraine invasion. However, this is not the full picture. Many countries around the world have a large deficit of cereal production, which is…

The United States consumption figure seems robust. An 0.9% rise in personal spending in April looks good on paper, especially considering the challenges that the economy faces. This apparently strong figure is supporting an average consensus estimate for the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3% according to Blue…

The most dangerous words in monetary policy and economics are “this time is different.” The big mistake of politicians in Argentina is to believe that inflation is multicausal and that everything is solved with increasing doses of interventionism. The consumer price index in Argentina experienced a year-on-year rise of 58%…

After more than a decade of chained stimulus packages and extremely low rates, with trillions of dollars of monetary stimulus fuelling elevated asset valuations and incentivising an enormous leveraged bet on risk, the idea of a controlled explosion or a “soft landing” is impossible. In an interview with Marketplace, Federal…

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted that the chain of stimulus plans implemented by the U.S. administration helped create the problem of inflation. “Inflation is a matter of demand and supply, and the spending that was undertaken in the American Rescue Plan did…

April 2022 will go down in history as a milestone that has only been seen on three previous occasions since 1973. A month in which the S&P500 Index and US Treasuries have fallen at the same time, 5% and 2% respectively. …