The latest jobs report in the United States shows strengths and weaknesses. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000 in December, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent. However, the United States job market continues to show negative real wage growth, the employment-to-population ratio is 60.1 percent, and the…

The IMF has warned about the optimistic estimates for 2023, stating that it will likely be a much more difficult year than 2022. Why would that be? Most strategists and commentators are cheering the recent decline in inflation as a good signal of recovery. However, there is much more to…

In 2022, central banks will have purchased the largest amount of gold in recent history. According to the World Gold Council, central bank purchases of gold have reached a level not seen since 1967. The world’s central banks bought 673 metric tons in one month, and in the third quarter…

2023. Stagflation After Failed Stimulus. After more than $20 trillion in stimulus plans since 2020, the economy is going into stagnation with elevated inflation. Global governments announced more than $12 trillion in stimulus measures in 2020 alone, and central banks bloated their balance sheet by $8 trillion. The result…

If we look at the staggering decline of the cryptocurrency index in 2022, we may understand an uncomfortable truth. Cryptocurrencies were created as an alternative to the monetary insanity in the fiat currency world yet became a massive bet on the money expansion they were supposed to combat. Cryptocurrencies did…

The latest estimates from consensus for the main Latin American economies show a continent facing a lost decade. The region GDP growth has been downgraded yet again to a modest 1.1% for 2023, with rising inflation and weakening gross fixed investment. Considering that the region was already recovering at a…

There are many mistakes in the G7 agreement to put a cap on Russian oil. The first one is that it does not hurt Russia at all. The agreed cap, at $60 a barrel, is higher than the current Urals price, above the five-year average of the quoted price…

Only 15 years ago, the European Union produced more natural gas than Russia exported, according to the EIA. Repeating past mistakes and maintaining a failed energetic interventionist policy would only worsen what is already a structural disaster. The prohibitive cost of electricity and gas in Europe is not a result…

While many market participants are concerned about rate increases, they appear to be ignoring the largest risk: the potential for a massive liquidity drain in 2023. Even though December is almost here, central banks’ balance sheets have hardly, if at all, decreased. Rather than real sales, a weaker currency…