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Works of Daniel Lacalle
Works of Daniel Lacalle

21 Followers

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May 23

Lifting the debt ceiling is not a social policy

Since 1960, Congress has raised the debt ceiling 78 times, according to Bloomberg. The process of increasing the debt limit has become so regular that markets barely worry about it. Furthermore, as the 2011 debt ceiling crisis showed, the impact on asset prices happened mostly in emerging economies. …

Debt

4 min read

Debt

4 min read


May 23

Long Term Inflation Expectations Reach 12-Year High

According to the University of Michigan, inflation expectations index for 5–30 years reached a 12-year high of 3.2 percent. At the same time, the consumer sentiment index declined to 63.5, compared to a pre-pandemic high of 300. The deterioration in the situation of consumers is evident. The official narrative is…

Inflation

3 min read

Long Term Inflation Expectations Reach 12-Year High
Long Term Inflation Expectations Reach 12-Year High
Inflation

3 min read


May 8

European banks may be riskier than U.S. ones and regulation will not solve it.

Deposits at U.S. commercial banks have fallen to lowest figure in nearly two years, according to the Federal Reserve. This figure has fallen by $500 billion since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. However, total banking credit has risen to a new record high of $17 trillion, according to the U.S…

Federal Reserve

5 min read

European banks may be riskier than U.S. ones and regulation will not solve it.
European banks may be riskier than U.S. ones and regulation will not solve it.
Federal Reserve

5 min read


May 8

Crowding-Out. The Fed May be Killing the Private Sector to Save Government.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reached its all-time high in May 2022. Since then, it was supposed to drop at a steady pace and shed three trillion US dollars by 2024. The normalization of monetary policy was built on the idea of a soft landing for the economy. …

Federal Reserve

3 min read

Crowding-Out. The Fed May be Killing the Private Sector to Save Government.
Crowding-Out. The Fed May be Killing the Private Sector to Save Government.
Federal Reserve

3 min read


May 8

Destruction of Capital and Central Banks

Inflation in assets inevitably leads to a burst of bubbles. In the period when central banks were glad to see limited consumer price increases despite large increases in the money supply, they created massive inflation in assets. Throughout the quantitative easing era, bond prices spiked, equity valuations soared, house prices…

Inflation

3 min read

Destruction of Capital and Central Banks
Destruction of Capital and Central Banks
Inflation

3 min read


Apr 16

OPEC cuts may lead to a world crisis.

The world is facing a precarious moment in the oil market. The recent decision by OPEC to extend production cuts has raised concerns about the potential impact on the global economy. …

Opec

5 min read

OPEC cuts may lead to a world crisis.
OPEC cuts may lead to a world crisis.
Opec

5 min read


Apr 11

China Is No Threat to the US Dollar But the US Government Policy May Hurt.

Former US President Donald Trump has expressed concern that China could displace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. The warning follows reports of agreements between various nations to use the yuan in commodity transactions. For years, rumors have circulated about the demise of the US dollar as a…

Dollar

5 min read

China Is No Threat to the US Dollar But the US Government Policy May Hurt.
China Is No Threat to the US Dollar But the US Government Policy May Hurt.
Dollar

5 min read


Apr 11

A Credit Crunch Is Inevitable

Federal Reserve data shows $98 billion of deposits left the banking system in the week after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Most of the money went to money-market funds, as the Bloomberg data shows that assets in this class rose by $121 billion in the same period. …

Credit Crunch

3 min read

Credit Crunch

3 min read


Mar 27

Systemic Risk in European Banks?

Negative interest rates and quantitative easing have wrecked the economic system. Negative interest rates destroy the profitable portion of a bank’s asset base, and no amount of cost-cutting or efficiency initiatives can compensate for this loss. …

Interest Rates

6 min read

Systemic Risk in European Banks?
Systemic Risk in European Banks?
Interest Rates

6 min read


Mar 27

The U.S. Banking System Was Destroyed By QE… And Negative Rates Killed It

Every time there is a banking crisis some scratch their heads and wonder; how could this happen? Surely it must be greed, bad risk management or lack of regulation. More intervention should solve it. However, all those excuses miss the most critical point: The U.S. …

Banking

5 min read

The U.S. Banking System Was Destroyed By QE… And Negative Rates Killed It
The U.S. Banking System Was Destroyed By QE… And Negative Rates Killed It
Banking

5 min read

Works of Daniel Lacalle

Works of Daniel Lacalle

21 Followers

Sharing the writing of Daniel Lacalle with his permission.

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